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BuxDu vs Gazalkent Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

BuxDu

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Gazalkent

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -1.51 for Away, form 1.43 vs 2.33

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.8%0-28.7%0-37.5%0-4+8.9%1 1-02.8%1-17.2%1-29.3%1-38.0%1-4+9.5%2 2-01.5%2-13.8%2-24.9%2-34.2%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.5%3-11.4%3-21.7%3-31.5%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% — — —

Draw 20.0% — — —

Away win 66.7% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 65.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 70%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob61.8%

A 67% / xG 1.1-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 0–2 8.7%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 1–3✓ 8.0%

#5 0–3 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BuxDu1.1

Gazalkent2.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXDU · PPG 1.43

GAZALKENT · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.51 for Away, form 1.43 vs 2.33

Win probability 1X2

BuxDu (H) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gazalkent (A) 66.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BuxDu face Gazalkent in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BuxDu a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Gazalkent 67%, so Gazalkent are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for BuxDu and 2.6 for Gazalkent (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BuxDu are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.33 for Gazalkent. This match finished 1-3.

BuxDu vs Gazalkent Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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