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FarDu vs Pakhtakor II Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

FarDu

PPG 2.33 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Pakhtakor II

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.14 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.9%1-15.7%1-22.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-18.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.8%3-17.8%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.6%4+-111.4%4+-24.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.8% — — —

Draw 18.1% — — —

Away win 9.1% — — —

Over 2.5 66.8% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 73% / xG 2.9-0.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 4–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FarDu2.9

Pakhtakor II0.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FARDU · PPG 2.33

PAKHTAKOR II · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.14 for Home, form 2.33 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FarDu (H) 72.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pakhtakor II (A) 9.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FarDu face Pakhtakor II in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FarDu a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Pakhtakor II 9%, so FarDu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for FarDu and 0.7 for Pakhtakor II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FarDu are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Pakhtakor II. This match finished 5-1.

FarDu vs Pakhtakor II Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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