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BuxDu vs Shortan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Matchday 13 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 14:00

BuxDu

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shortan

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-111.9%0-210.9%0-36.7%0-4+4.7%1 1-05.8%1-110.7%1-29.8%1-36.0%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.6%2-14.8%2-24.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.8%3-11.5%3-21.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% — — —

Draw 23.5% — — —

Away win 50.3% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 53.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob53.1%

A 50% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 0–2 10.9%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BuxDu0.9

Shortan1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXDU · PPG 1.67

SHORTAN · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.93 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

BuxDu (H) 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shortan (A) 50.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BuxDu face Shortan in Uzbekistan - Pro League A on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BuxDu a 26% chance, the draw 24% and Shortan 50%, so Shortan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for BuxDu and 1.8 for Shortan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BuxDu are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.40 for Shortan.

BuxDu vs Shortan Prediction— Uzbekistan - Pro League A

Match Preview & Prediction

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