Today / Egypt - Premier League / K. Ismailia vs Ghazl El M.

K. Ismailia vs Ghazl El M. Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 5 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:00

K. Ismailia

PPG 0.36 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Ghazl El M.

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-113.3%0-25.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.3%2-16.5%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 34.7% 2.88 +12.9%

Draw 32.9% 35.7% 2.80 -7.9%

Away win 27.9% 38.5% 2.60 -27.5%

Over 2.5 26.3% 36.4% 2.75 -27.7%

Over 3.5 10.5% 18.2% 5.50 -42.3%

BTTS 34.2% 47.6% 2.10 -28.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob34.2%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–0 16.8%

#3 0–1 13.3%

#4 1–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

K. Ismailia1.0

Ghazl El M.0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 26.3% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

K. ISMAILIA · PPG 0.36

GHAZL EL M. · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.36) vs Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

K. Ismailia (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +12.9%

Draw 32.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -7.9%

Ghazl El M. (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

K. Ismailia face Ghazl El M. in Egypt - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives K. Ismailia a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Ghazl El M. 28%, so K. Ismailia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for K. Ismailia and 0.8 for Ghazl El M. (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, K. Ismailia are averaging 0.36 points per game versus 0.82 for Ghazl El M.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-3.

K. Ismailia vs Ghazl El M. Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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