K. Ismailia vs Ghazl El M. Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Egypt - Premier League Relegation Group - 5 Ismailia Stadium· Ismailia Sunday, April 19, 2026 18:00

K. Ismailia PPG 0.36

1-3 MISS

Ghazl El M. PPG 0.82

Home· +12.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

K. Ismailia face Ghazl El M. in Egypt - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives K. Ismailia a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Ghazl El M. 28%, so K. Ismailia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for K. Ismailia and 0.8 for Ghazl El M. (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, K. Ismailia are averaging 0.36 points per game versus 0.82 for Ghazl El M.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.2%

Odds: 2.88 EV: +12.9%

Draw 32.9%

Odds: 2.80 EV: -7.9%

Away 27.9%

Odds: 2.60 EV: -27.5%

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 26.3% Odds: 2.75 -27.7%

Over 3.5 10.5% Odds: 5.50 -42.3%

BTTS 34.2% Odds: 2.10 -28.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

K. Ismailia

0.99

Ghazl El M.

0.79

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 4.4%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.36) vs Away POOR (0.82)