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Manta vs D. Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 9 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:00

Manta

PPG 0.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

D. Cuenca

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.4%0-127.8%0-211.9%0-33.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.7%1-17.5%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-01.2%2-11.0%2-20.4%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.1%3-20.0%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.2% 36.5% 2.74 -69.3%

Draw 40.3% 31.7% 3.15 +26.9%

Away win 48.5% 39.1% 2.56 +24.2%

Over 2.5 10.5% 45.5% 2.20 -76.9%

Over 3.5 2.8% 23.8% 4.20 -88.2%

BTTS 13.6% 54.6% 1.83 -75.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob13.6%

A 48% / xG 0.3-0.9 / U2.5 10% / NoBTTS 14%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.4%

#2 0–1✓ 27.8%

#3 0–2 11.9%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manta0.3

D. Cuenca0.9

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 10.5% · O3.5 PROB 2.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MANTA · PPG 0.00

D. CUENCA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Manta (H) 11.2%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -69.3%

Draw 40.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +26.9%

D. Cuenca (A) 48.5%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manta face D. Cuenca in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manta a 11% chance, the draw 40% and D. Cuenca 49%, so D. Cuenca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Manta and 0.9 for D. Cuenca (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 11% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 14% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manta are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.50 for D. Cuenca. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +26.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Manta vs D. Cuenca Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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