Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / Villa Dalmine vs Argentino Merlo

Villa Dalmine vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:00

Villa Dalmine

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Argentino Merlo

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+22.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-17.4%0-21.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.6%1-18.8%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.3%2-15.3%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.1%3-12.1%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 47.6% 2.10 +22.2%

Draw 31.2% 34.7% 2.88 -10.1%

Away win 10.6% 28.2% 3.55 -62.4%

Over 2.5 20.1% 35.1% 2.85 -42.7%

Over 3.5 7.1% — — —

BTTS 20.3% 43.5% 2.30 -53.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob20.3%

H 58% / xG 1.2-0.3 / U2.5 20% / NoBTTS 20%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 25.6%

#2 0–0 21.4%

#3 2–0 15.3%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villa Dalmine1.2

Argentino Merlo0.3

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 20.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 1.20

ARGENTINO MERLO · PPG 1.80

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.80) strong but model favors Home (P=58.2%)

Win probability 1X2

Villa Dalmine (H) 58.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +22.2%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.1%

Argentino Merlo (A) 10.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -62.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Dalmine face Argentino Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Dalmine a 58% chance, the draw 31% and Argentino Merlo 11%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Villa Dalmine and 0.3 for Argentino Merlo (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 20% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Dalmine are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.80 for Argentino Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Villa Dalmine vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions