Villa Dalmine vs Argentino Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Regular Season - 12 Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini· Buenos Aires Sunday, April 19, 2026 18:00

Villa Dalmine PPG 1.20

1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Argentino Merlo PPG 1.80

Home· +22.2% ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Villa Dalmine face Argentino Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villa Dalmine a 58% chance, the draw 31% and Argentino Merlo 11%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Villa Dalmine and 0.3 for Argentino Merlo (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 20% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 20% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villa Dalmine are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.80 for Argentino Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.2%

Odds: 2.10 EV: +22.2%

Draw 31.2%

Odds: 2.88 EV: -10.1%

Away 10.6%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -62.4%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 20.1% Odds: 2.85 -42.7%

Over 3.5 7.1% Odds: — —

BTTS 20.3% Odds: 2.30 -53.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Villa Dalmine

1.20

Argentino Merlo

0.34

Model SuggestionHome +22.2% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 66%

Score Hit 65%

ROI 16.1%

Bet Hit 52% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.80) strong but model favors Home (P=58.2%)