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V. San Carlos vs D. Armenio Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 18:00

V. San Carlos

PPG 0.83 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

D. Armenio

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 35.7% — a clear edge.

+49.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-18.6%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.0%1-112.1%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.4%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.5%3-13.9%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 35.7% 2.80 +49.8%

Draw 27.6% 35.1% 2.85 -21.3%

Away win 19.0% 39.2% 2.55 -51.5%

Over 2.5 35.2% 35.1% 2.85 +0.3%

Over 3.5 16.2% — — —

BTTS 38.2% 45.5% 2.20 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.2%

H 54% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.0%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

V. San Carlos1.4

D. Armenio0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.2%

Form & verdict PPG

V. SAN CARLOS · PPG 0.83

D. ARMENIO · PPG 1.17

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.83) vs Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

V. San Carlos (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +49.8%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -21.3%

D. Armenio (A) 19.0%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -51.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

V. San Carlos face D. Armenio in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. San Carlos a 54% chance, the draw 28% and D. Armenio 19%, so V. San Carlos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for V. San Carlos and 0.7 for D. Armenio (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. San Carlos are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.17 for D. Armenio. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +49.8%. This match finished 4-1.

V. San Carlos vs D. Armenio Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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