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São Paulo W vs RB Bragantino W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 21:00

São Paulo W

PPG 2.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

RB Bragantino W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.1%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.6%1-17.5%1-22.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.6%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-18.3%4+-23.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 67.6% 1.48 -6.2%

Draw 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

Away win 16.0% 17.2% 5.80 -4.3%

Over 2.5 60.9% 55.6% 1.80 +9.6%

Over 3.5 38.2% 32.3% 3.10 +18.4%

BTTS 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Home O1.5 62.6% 62.5% 1.60 +0.2%

Away O1.5 18.7% 23.8% 4.20 -12.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 63% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 3–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 1–0✓ 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São Paulo W2.5

RB Bragantino W0.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO PAULO W · PPG 2.57

RB BRAGANTINO W · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.68 for Home, form 2.57 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

São Paulo W (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -6.2%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.8%

RB Bragantino W (A) 16.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

São Paulo W face RB Bragantino W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São Paulo W a 63% chance, the draw 21% and RB Bragantino W 16%, so São Paulo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for São Paulo W and 0.8 for RB Bragantino W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São Paulo W are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.17 for RB Bragantino W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 1-0.

São Paulo W vs RB Bragantino W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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