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Corinthians W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Corinthians W

PPG 2.71 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Santos W

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.6% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-12.7%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.3%1-16.9%1-22.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.3%3-17.7%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-19.2%4+-23.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.6% 75.2% 1.33 -10.1%

Draw 16.8% 21.1% 4.75 -12.1%

Away win 15.6% 14.3% 7.00 +5.5%

Over 2.5 63.5% 60.6% 1.65 +4.8%

Over 3.5 40.1% 37.0% 2.70 +8.3%

BTTS 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Home O1.5 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 3–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians W2.6

Santos W0.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS W · PPG 2.71

SANTOS W · PPG 1.29

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.83 for Home, form 2.71 vs 1.29 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians W (H) 67.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -10.1%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -12.1%

Santos W (A) 15.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians W face Santos W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians W a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Santos W 16%, so Corinthians W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Corinthians W and 0.7 for Santos W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians W are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 1.29 for Santos W. The best value bet our model finds is D/O25, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 4-1.

Corinthians W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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