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Flamengo W vs Corinthians W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 14 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 21:30

Flamengo W

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Corinthians W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.9%0-25.4%0-33.3%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.2%1-19.5%1-28.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.2%2-17.6%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.2%3-14.1%3-23.7%3-32.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 25.3% 3.95 +43.8%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -12.9%

Away win 40.6% 55.6% 1.80 -26.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 55.6% 1.80 +14.5%

Over 3.5 40.4% 33.3% 3.00 +21.2%

BTTS 62.2% 59.9% 1.67 +3.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 33.3% 3.00 +48.2%

Away O1.5 48.6% 54.6% 1.83 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -51.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.2%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo W1.6

Corinthians W1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.71

CORINTHIANS W · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo W (H) 36.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +43.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.9%

Corinthians W (A) 40.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo W face Corinthians W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo W a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Corinthians W 41%, so Corinthians W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Flamengo W and 1.8 for Corinthians W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo W are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 2.00 for Corinthians W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +48.2%.

Flamengo W vs Corinthians W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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