Southampton vs Blackburn Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 45 St. Mary's Stadium· Southampton Tuesday, April 14, 2026 19:00

Southampton PPG 1.95

3-0 HIT CS5

Blackburn PPG 1.33

Home· +2.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton face Blackburn in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Blackburn 14%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Southampton and 0.8 for Blackburn (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.33 for Blackburn. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 65.4%

Odds: 1.56 EV: +2.0%

Draw 20.6%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -20.7%

Away 14.0%

Odds: 5.80 EV: -18.8%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.3% Odds: 1.83 -4.3%

Over 3.5 30.1% Odds: 3.10 -6.7%

BTTS 46.9% Odds: 1.85 -13.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Southampton

1.98

Blackburn

0.79

Model SuggestionHome +2.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -1.0%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)