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Southampton vs Blackburn Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 45 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 19:00

Southampton

PPG 1.95 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Blackburn

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-14.9%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-19.8%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.1%3-16.4%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 64.1% 1.56 +2.0%

Draw 20.6% 26.0% 3.85 -20.7%

Away win 14.0% 17.2% 5.80 -18.8%

Over 2.5 52.3% 54.6% 1.83 -4.3%

Over 3.5 30.1% 32.3% 3.10 -6.7%

BTTS 46.9% 54.1% 1.85 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.9%

H 65% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.4%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southampton2.0

Blackburn0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHAMPTON · PPG 1.95

BLACKBURN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.95) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Southampton (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV +2.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -20.7%

Blackburn (A) 14.0%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton face Blackburn in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Blackburn 14%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Southampton and 0.8 for Blackburn (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.33 for Blackburn. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Southampton vs Blackburn Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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