Swansea City vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 46 Swansea.com Stadium· Swansea Saturday, May 2, 2026 11:30

Swansea City PPG 1.64

3-1 MISS

Charlton PPG 1.00

Draw· +15.3% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Swansea City face Charlton in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swansea City a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Charlton 27%, so Swansea City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Swansea City and 1.0 for Charlton (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swansea City are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.00 for Charlton. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.3%

Odds: 1.84 EV: -24.0%

Draw 31.6%

Odds: 3.65 EV: +15.3%

Away 27.0%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +6.7%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.3% Odds: 1.80 -25.7%

Over 3.5 20.8% Odds: 2.95 -38.6%

BTTS 48.7% Odds: 1.70 -17.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Swansea City

1.31

Charlton

1.02

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)