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Swansea City vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Swansea City

PPG 1.64 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Charlton

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.9%0-25.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.7%1-113.0%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-18.5%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 54.3% 1.84 -24.0%

Draw 31.6% 27.4% 3.65 +15.3%

Away win 27.0% 25.3% 3.95 +6.7%

Over 2.5 41.3% 55.6% 1.80 -25.7%

Over 3.5 20.8% 33.9% 2.95 -38.6%

BTTS 48.7% 58.8% 1.70 -17.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swansea City1.3

Charlton1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SWANSEA CITY · PPG 1.64

CHARLTON · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Swansea City (H) 41.3%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -24.0%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +15.3%

Charlton (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swansea City face Charlton in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swansea City a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Charlton 27%, so Swansea City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Swansea City and 1.0 for Charlton (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swansea City are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.00 for Charlton. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Swansea City vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions