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Sheffield Wed vs West Brom Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Sheffield Wed

PPG 0.32 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

West Brom

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-113.5%0-29.3%0-34.3%0-4+2.0%1 1-09.3%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-04.4%2-16.0%2-24.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.4%3-11.9%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 17.9% 5.60 +33.8%

Draw 31.3% 23.0% 4.35 +36.1%

Away win 44.9% 66.2% 1.51 -32.2%

Over 2.5 40.8% 61.7% 1.62 -33.9%

Over 3.5 20.4% 38.5% 2.60 -47.0%

BTTS 47.5% 57.8% 1.73 -17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.5%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.9%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sheffield Wed0.9

West Brom1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SHEFFIELD WED · PPG 0.32

WEST BROM · PPG 0.86

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

48%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.86) vs Home POOR (0.32)

Win probability 1X2

Sheffield Wed (H) 23.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +33.8%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV +36.1%

West Brom (A) 44.9%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sheffield Wed face West Brom in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sheffield Wed a 24% chance, the draw 31% and West Brom 45%, so West Brom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sheffield Wed and 1.4 for West Brom (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sheffield Wed are averaging 0.32 points per game versus 0.86 for West Brom. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +36.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Sheffield Wed vs West Brom Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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