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Portsmouth vs Birmingham City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 46 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 11:30

Portsmouth

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Birmingham City

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-110.6%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-18.1%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.0%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 39.1% 2.56 -5.8%

Draw 31.8% 29.0% 3.45 +9.7%

Away win 31.3% 39.1% 2.56 -19.9%

Over 2.5 41.9% 55.6% 1.80 -24.6%

Over 3.5 21.2% 33.3% 3.00 -36.4%

BTTS 49.8% 61.7% 1.62 -19.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.8%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portsmouth1.2

Birmingham City1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTSMOUTH · PPG 1.32

BIRMINGHAM CITY · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.32) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Portsmouth (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -5.8%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +9.7%

Birmingham City (A) 31.3%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portsmouth face Birmingham City in England - Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portsmouth a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Birmingham City 31%, so Portsmouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Portsmouth and 1.1 for Birmingham City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portsmouth are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.86 for Birmingham City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Portsmouth vs Birmingham City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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