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Anzoátegui FC vs Portuguesa FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:30

Anzoátegui FC

PPG 0.33 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Portuguesa FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-111.1%0-28.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 38.5% 2.60 -18.9%

Draw 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -12.0%

Away win 43.1% 38.5% 2.60 +12.1%

Over 2.5 53.4% 45.5% 2.20 +17.5%

Over 3.5 31.9% 23.8% 4.20 +34.0%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 32.1% 37.7% 2.65 -14.9%

Away O1.5 47.8% 37.7% 2.65 +26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.1%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anzoátegui FC1.1

Portuguesa FC1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ANZOÁTEGUI FC · PPG 0.33

PORTUGUESA FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.42 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Anzoátegui FC (H) 31.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -18.9%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.0%

Portuguesa FC (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anzoátegui FC face Portuguesa FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anzoátegui FC a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Portuguesa FC 43%, so Portuguesa FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Anzoátegui FC and 1.5 for Portuguesa FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anzoátegui FC are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Portuguesa FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.0%. This match finished 3-4.

Anzoátegui FC vs Portuguesa FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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