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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Zamora FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 20:00

Estudiantes de Merida FC

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Zamora FC

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.7%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.9%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.6%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 33.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.3% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 37.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 7.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes de Merida FC1.3

Zamora FC1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC · PPG 1.44

ZAMORA FC · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.22, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes de Merida FC (H) 39.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Zamora FC (A) 33.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes de Merida FC face Zamora FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes de Merida FC a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Zamora FC 34%, so Estudiantes de Merida FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 1.1 for Zamora FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes de Merida FC are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.14 for Zamora FC.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Zamora FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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