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Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 5, 2026, 22:30

Deportivo La Guaira

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Metropolitanos FC

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.7%0-113.3%0-23.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.7%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.2%2-15.1%2-21.4%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.7%3-11.5%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% — — —

Draw 35.1% — — —

Away win 25.6% — — —

Over 2.5 29.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.3% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 4.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 39% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.7%

#2 1–0 20.8%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–1 13.3%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo La Guaira0.9

Metropolitanos FC0.6

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA · PPG 1.56

METROPOLITANOS FC · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.32, combined xG 1.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo La Guaira (H) 39.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metropolitanos FC (A) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo La Guaira face Metropolitanos FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo La Guaira a 39% chance, the draw 35% and Metropolitanos FC 26%, so Deportivo La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Deportivo La Guaira and 0.6 for Metropolitanos FC (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo La Guaira are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.67 for Metropolitanos FC.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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