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OFK Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

OFK Beograd

PPG 1.08 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Železničar Pančevo

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.2%0-26.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.6%1-112.9%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.7%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 43.1% 2.32 -9.3%

Draw 27.0% 30.3% 3.30 -6.5%

Away win 33.9% 35.2% 2.84 -3.7%

Over 2.5 50.3% 57.8% 1.73 -13.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 35.7% 2.80 -11.6%

BTTS 53.6% 64.5% 1.55 -16.9%

Home O1.5 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

Away O1.5 35.7% 42.6% 2.35 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.6%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

OFK Beograd1.3

Železničar Pančevo1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OFK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.08

ŽELEZNIČAR PANČEVO · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

OFK Beograd (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -9.3%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

Železničar Pančevo (A) 33.9%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

OFK Beograd face Železničar Pančevo in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives OFK Beograd a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Železničar Pančevo 34%, so OFK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for OFK Beograd and 1.2 for Železničar Pančevo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, OFK Beograd are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.29 for Železničar Pančevo. This match finished 2-2.

OFK Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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