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Mladost Lucani vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 19:00

Mladost Lucani

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Cukaricki

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.7%0-117.1%0-27.9%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.2%1-113.0%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.4%2-15.0%2-22.3%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.4%3-11.3%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 39.1% 2.56 -19.6%

Draw 33.6% 35.5% 2.82 -5.3%

Away win 34.9% 34.2% 2.92 +1.9%

Over 2.5 34.8% 45.5% 2.20 -23.4%

Over 3.5 18.1% 25.6% 3.90 -17.6%

BTTS 45.5% 55.6% 1.80 -18.1%

Home O1.5 32.1% 39.2% 2.55 -18.1%

Away O1.5 25.4% 35.7% 2.80 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.5%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.7%

#2 0–1 17.1%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 14.2%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mladost Lucani0.8

Cukaricki0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 1.40

CUKARICKI · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 1.68 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mladost Lucani (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -19.6%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -5.3%

Cukaricki (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mladost Lucani face Cukaricki in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mladost Lucani a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Cukaricki 35%, so Cukaricki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mladost Lucani and 0.9 for Cukaricki (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mladost Lucani are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.58 for Cukaricki. This match finished 2-2.

Mladost Lucani vs Cukaricki Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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