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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 18:00

FK Crvena Zvezda

PPG 2.46 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.1% vs bookmaker-implied 90.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.3%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.5%1-14.1%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-16.8%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.7%3-17.4%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-022.1%4+-114.0%4+-24.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.1% 90.1% 1.11 -16.6%

Draw 16.5% 13.0% 7.70 +16.2%

Away win 8.4% 6.1% 16.50 +23.2%

Over 2.5 67.2% 82.0% 1.22 -18.0%

Over 3.5 44.1% 61.7% 1.62 -28.6%

BTTS 48.4% 54.6% 1.83 -11.4%

Home O1.5 78.3% 85.5% 1.17 -8.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 75% / xG 3.3-0.6 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.7%

#2 2–0✓ 10.7%

#3 4–0 9.6%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Crvena Zvezda3.3

Novi Pazar0.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FK CRVENA ZVEZDA · PPG 2.46

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.23

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.65 for Home, form 2.46 vs 1.23 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FK Crvena Zvezda (H) 75.1%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -16.6%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +16.2%

Novi Pazar (A) 8.4%

ODDS 16.50 · IMPLIED 6.1% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Crvena Zvezda face Novi Pazar in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Novi Pazar 8%, so FK Crvena Zvezda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.6 for Novi Pazar (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Crvena Zvezda are averaging 2.46 points per game versus 1.23 for Novi Pazar. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.8%. This match finished 2-0.

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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