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Gyor vs Ferencvaros Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 17:30

Gyor

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ferencvaros

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.6%0-26.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.0%1-112.4%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-17.9%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.4%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 37.6% 2.66 -7.2%

Draw 26.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 39.0% 42.6% 2.35 -8.3%

Over 2.5 49.6% 61.7% 1.62 -19.7%

Over 3.5 27.6% 39.2% 2.55 -29.6%

BTTS 54.0% 67.6% 1.48 -20.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.0%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 9.6%

#3 1–0✓ 9.0%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyor1.3

Ferencvaros1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GYOR · PPG 2.00

FERENCVAROS · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

Gyor (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -7.2%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Ferencvaros (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyor face Ferencvaros in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyor a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Ferencvaros 39%, so Ferencvaros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gyor and 1.4 for Ferencvaros (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyor are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.40 for Ferencvaros. This match finished 1-0.

Gyor vs Ferencvaros Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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