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Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:15

Jagiellonia

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Widzew Łódź

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 43.1% — a clear edge.

+25.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-17.4%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.1%1-111.5%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-14.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 43.1% 2.32 +25.3%

Draw 24.8% 29.9% 3.35 -10.2%

Away win 21.2% 34.0% 2.94 -22.6%

Over 2.5 47.8% 50.0% 2.00 -4.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 28.2% 3.55 +1.3%

BTTS 48.4% 56.5% 1.77 -14.3%

Home O1.5 45.4% 43.5% 2.30 +4.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 37.0% 2.70 -31.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jagiellonia1.6

Widzew Łódź0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 2.00

WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ · PPG 0.96

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jagiellonia (H) 54.0%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +25.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.2%

Widzew Łódź (A) 21.2%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jagiellonia face Widzew Łódź in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jagiellonia a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Widzew Łódź 21%, so Jagiellonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Jagiellonia and 0.7 for Widzew Łódź (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jagiellonia are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.96 for Widzew Łódź. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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