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FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme United Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

FC Levadia Tallinn

PPG 2.00 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Nõmme United

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.8%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.1%1-13.1%1-21.6%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-05.8%2-16.0%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-17.5%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-018.8%4+-119.3%4+-29.9%4+-33.4%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 83.3% 1.20 -20.1%

Draw 16.6% 16.7% 6.00 -0.2%

Away win 16.8% 9.1% 11.00 +50.9%

Over 2.5 73.0% 78.1% 1.28 -6.6%

Over 3.5 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

BTTS 61.8% 63.7% 1.57 -3.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% 83.3% 1.20 -6.0%

Away O1.5 32.1% 25.0% 4.00 +28.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.8%

H 67% / xG 3.8-1.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.5%

#2 3–0 7.3%

#3 4–1 7.1%

#4 4–0 6.9%

#5 2–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Levadia Tallinn3.8

Nõmme United1.0

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC LEVADIA TALLINN · PPG 2.00

NÕMME UNITED · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.76 for Home, form 2.00 vs 1.30 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC Levadia Tallinn (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -20.1%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -0.2%

Nõmme United (A) 16.8%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +50.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Levadia Tallinn face Nõmme United in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Levadia Tallinn a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Nõmme United 17%, so FC Levadia Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for FC Levadia Tallinn and 1.0 for Nõmme United (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Levadia Tallinn are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.30 for Nõmme United. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.4%. This match finished 5-0.

FC Levadia Tallinn vs Nõmme United Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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