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Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Group 4 - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 17:00

Aguilas FC

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Lorca Deportiva

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-14.3%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.2%1-18.3%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.7%2-18.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-010.8%3-15.2%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-13.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.4% 69.4% 1.44 +4.3%

Draw 19.3% 27.0% 3.70 -28.6%

Away win 8.2% 15.4% 6.50 -46.7%

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 22.6% — — —

BTTS 32.7% 40.8% 2.45 -19.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob32.7%

H 72% / xG 1.9-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0✓ 16.7%

#3 3–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 1–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aguilas FC1.9

Lorca Deportiva0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AGUILAS FC · PPG 2.00

LORCA DEPORTIVA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away AVERAGE (1.07) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Aguilas FC (H) 72.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +4.3%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -28.6%

Lorca Deportiva (A) 8.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aguilas FC face Lorca Deportiva in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aguilas FC a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Lorca Deportiva 8%, so Aguilas FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Aguilas FC and 0.5 for Lorca Deportiva (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aguilas FC are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.07 for Lorca Deportiva. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Aguilas FC vs Lorca Deportiva Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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