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Arsenal vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 17:00

Arsenal

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Minsk

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.5%0-26.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.6%1-112.5%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-18.2%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.6%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 42.7% 2.34 -12.0%

Draw 27.2% 29.6% 3.38 -4.8%

Away win 35.2% 35.0% 2.86 +0.7%

Over 2.5 50.6% 45.9% 2.18 +10.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 25.3% 3.95 +8.5%

BTTS 53.9% 53.5% 1.87 +0.8%

Home O1.5 38.3% 39.2% 2.55 -2.3%

Away O1.5 38.6% 33.9% 2.95 +13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 14%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.9%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal1.3

FC Minsk1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL · PPG 1.14

FC MINSK · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -12.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.38 · IMPLIED 29.6% EV -4.8%

FC Minsk (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal face FC Minsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal a 38% chance, the draw 27% and FC Minsk 35%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Arsenal and 1.3 for FC Minsk (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.17 for FC Minsk. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.9%.

Arsenal vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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