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FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:00

FC Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Naftan

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.6%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.0%1-111.9%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Draw 24.7% 26.0% 3.84 -3.1%

Away win 21.8% 19.4% 5.15 +7.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 52.9% 1.89 -4.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.1% 3.12 -5.9%

BTTS 52.6% 54.3% 1.84 -3.2%

Home O1.5 47.3% 56.2% 1.78 -15.8%

Away O1.5 20.3% 24.7% 4.05 -10.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 14%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Dnepr Mogilev1.6

Naftan0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.86

NAFTAN · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Dnepr Mogilev (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.84 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.1%

Naftan (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.15 · IMPLIED 19.4% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Dnepr Mogilev face Naftan in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Dnepr Mogilev a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Naftan 22%, so FC Dnepr Mogilev are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Dnepr Mogilev and 0.8 for Naftan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Dnepr Mogilev are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.00 for Naftan. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.4%.

FC Dnepr Mogilev vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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