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Portsmouth vs Ipswich Town Prediction— England - Championship

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 19:00

Portsmouth

PPG 1.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ipswich Town

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+22.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-19.0%0-28.4%0-35.2%0-4+3.7%1 1-05.7%1-110.5%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.3%2-16.1%2-25.7%2-33.5%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.3%3-12.4%3-22.2%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.7% 26.7% 3.75 -11.1%

Draw 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -23.2%

Away win 53.7% 50.8% 1.97 +5.8%

Over 2.5 58.2% 47.6% 2.10 +22.2%

Over 3.5 35.8% 26.0% 3.85 +37.8%

BTTS 58.1% 52.4% 1.91 +11.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.1%

A 54% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 2–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portsmouth1.2

Ipswich Town1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTSMOUTH · PPG 1.15

IPSWICH TOWN · PPG 1.53

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.15) vs Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Portsmouth (H) 23.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.2%

Ipswich Town (A) 53.7%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portsmouth face Ipswich Town in England - Championship on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portsmouth a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Ipswich Town 54%, so Ipswich Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Portsmouth and 1.9 for Ipswich Town (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portsmouth are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.53 for Ipswich Town. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +37.8%.

Portsmouth vs Ipswich Town Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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