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Pardubice vs FK Jablonec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Regular Season - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 18:00

Pardubice

PPG 1.34 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Jablonec

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.1%0-26.4%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.7%1-112.1%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.1%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.6%3-13.6%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 43.9% 2.28 -12.9%

Draw 26.1% 30.8% 3.25 -9.1%

Away win 35.7% 34.5% 2.90 +3.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 51.3% 1.95 +4.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 29.9% 3.35 +7.9%

BTTS 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Home O1.5 38.3% 44.4% 2.25 -13.8%

Away O1.5 43.7% 37.7% 2.65 +15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 36% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pardubice1.3

FK Jablonec1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PARDUBICE · PPG 1.34

FK JABLONEC · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pardubice (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -12.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.1%

FK Jablonec (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pardubice face FK Jablonec in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pardubice a 38% chance, the draw 26% and FK Jablonec 36%, so Pardubice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pardubice and 1.4 for FK Jablonec (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pardubice are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.43 for FK Jablonec. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.8%.

Pardubice vs FK Jablonec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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