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JBK vs Vaajakoski Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

JBK

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vaajakoski

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 78.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.2%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.2%1-17.7%1-24.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.5%2-19.4%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.5%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-18.0%4+-25.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 57.5% 1.74 -2.0%

Draw 22.0% 26.0% 3.85 -9.2%

Away win 21.8% 29.4% 3.40 -15.5%

Over 2.5 67.0% 78.7% 1.27 -14.9%

Over 3.5 44.8% 57.1% 1.75 -21.6%

BTTS 62.1% 74.1% 1.35 -16.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 72.5% 1.38 -17.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

JBK2.4

Vaajakoski1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JBK · PPG 2.14

VAAJAKOSKI · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

JBK (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -2.0%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.2%

Vaajakoski (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

JBK face Vaajakoski in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives JBK a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Vaajakoski 22%, so JBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for JBK and 1.2 for Vaajakoski (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, JBK are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.14 for Vaajakoski.

JBK vs Vaajakoski Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions