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Huima / Urho vs TP-47 Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Group C ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

Huima / Urho

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

TP-47

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.4%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.1%1-18.1%1-24.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.6%3-17.5%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-17.7%4+-24.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 63.7% 1.57 -10.3%

Draw 21.7% 23.5% 4.25 -4.7%

Away win 21.2% 26.0% 3.85 -11.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 86.2% 1.16 -26.1%

Over 3.5 40.6% 67.6% 1.48 -39.9%

BTTS 60.2% 78.1% 1.28 -22.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 78.7% 1.27 -23.7%

Away O1.5 36.5% 50.8% 1.97 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.2%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Huima / Urho2.4

TP-471.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HUIMA / URHO · PPG 2.00

TP-47 · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Huima / Urho (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -10.3%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.25 · IMPLIED 23.5% EV -4.7%

TP-47 (A) 21.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Huima / Urho face TP-47 in Finland - Kakkonen Group C on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Huima / Urho a 57% chance, the draw 22% and TP-47 21%, so Huima / Urho are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Huima / Urho and 1.1 for TP-47 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Huima / Urho are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.57 for TP-47.

Huima / Urho vs TP-47 Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group C Predictions