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Kaspiy vs Ulytau Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Kaspiy

PPG 1.62 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Ulytau

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-19.4%0-23.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.4%1-112.5%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.3%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.8%3-13.7%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 47.6% 2.10 +4.6%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 23.0% 30.8% 3.25 -15.2%

Over 2.5 45.9% 51.3% 1.95 -10.5%

Over 3.5 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

BTTS 48.4% 57.8% 1.73 -16.3%

Home O1.5 37.4% 47.6% 2.10 -21.5%

Away O1.5 17.4% 35.1% 2.85 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 25.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.4%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 1–1✓ 12.5%

#3 0–0 12.4%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaspiy1.3

Ulytau0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KASPIY · PPG 1.62

ULYTAU · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kaspiy (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Ulytau (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaspiy face Ulytau in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaspiy a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Ulytau 23%, so Kaspiy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kaspiy and 0.8 for Ulytau (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaspiy are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.78 for Ulytau. This match finished 1-1.

Kaspiy vs Ulytau Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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