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Ulytau vs FC Astana Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

Ulytau

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Astana

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-110.6%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-18.0%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.0%3-13.3%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 26.0% 3.85 +75.9%

Draw 29.1% 28.6% 3.50 +1.1%

Away win 25.1% 55.6% 1.80 -32.9%

Over 2.5 44.0% 54.1% 1.85 -18.6%

Over 3.5 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

BTTS 48.7% 57.8% 1.73 -15.8%

Home O1.5 33.1% 32.3% 3.10 +2.6%

Away O1.5 20.3% 54.1% 1.85 -37.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.7%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 15.8%

#4 2–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulytau1.2

FC Astana0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ULYTAU · PPG 2.00

FC ASTANA · PPG 0.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ulytau (H) 45.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +75.9%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.1%

FC Astana (A) 25.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulytau face FC Astana in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulytau a 46% chance, the draw 29% and FC Astana 25%, so Ulytau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ulytau and 0.8 for FC Astana (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulytau are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for FC Astana. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +44.9%.

Ulytau vs FC Astana Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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