Today / Kazakhstan - Premier League / Zhenys vs Yelimay Semey

Zhenys vs Yelimay Semey Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 13:00

Zhenys

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yelimay Semey

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-110.8%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.8%1-113.2%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-18.0%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 32.3% 3.10 +28.0%

Draw 27.7% 31.3% 3.20 -6.8%

Away win 30.9% 46.5% 2.15 -33.6%

Over 2.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 27.0% 3.70 +4.2%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 33.1% 34.5% 2.90 -4.0%

Away O1.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zhenys1.2

Yelimay Semey1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZHENYS · PPG 1.44

YELIMAY SEMEY · PPG 1.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zhenys (H) 41.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +28.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.8%

Yelimay Semey (A) 30.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zhenys face Yelimay Semey in Kazakhstan - Premier League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zhenys a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Yelimay Semey 31%, so Zhenys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Zhenys and 1.1 for Yelimay Semey (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zhenys are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.67 for Yelimay Semey. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.3%.

Zhenys vs Yelimay Semey Prediction— Kazakhstan - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kazakhstan - Premier League Predictions