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Raelingen vs Råde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Raelingen

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

Råde

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.4%0-22.2%0-32.4%0-4+4.2%1 1-01.0%1-13.1%1-25.0%1-35.3%1-4+9.4%2 2-01.1%2-13.5%2-25.6%2-35.9%2-4+10.6%3 3-00.8%3-12.6%3-24.2%3-34.4%3-4+7.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.5%4+-23.9%4+-34.2%4+-4+7.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 23.1% 4.33 +39.9%

Draw 17.0% 19.0% 5.25 -6.5%

Away win 50.7% 69.0% 1.45 -26.5%

Over 2.5 80.9% 89.3% 1.12 -9.4%

Over 3.5 59.0% 72.5% 1.38 -18.6%

BTTS 69.6% 78.7% 1.27 -11.6%

Home O1.5 62.4% 46.9% 2.13 +32.9%

Away O1.5 77.8% 85.5% 1.17 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob69.6%

A 51% / xG 2.2-3.2 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.9%

#2 2–2 5.6%

#3 1–3 5.3%

#4 1–2 5.0%

#5 2–4 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Raelingen2.2

Råde3.2

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RAELINGEN · PPG 2.00

RÅDE · PPG 1.71

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.95 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Raelingen (H) 32.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +39.9%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -6.5%

Råde (A) 50.7%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Raelingen face Råde in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Raelingen a 32% chance, the draw 17% and Råde 51%, so Råde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Raelingen and 3.2 for Råde (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Raelingen are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Råde. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Raelingen vs Råde Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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