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Elverum vs Ørn Horten Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Elverum

PPG 2.57 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ørn Horten

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.2%0-22.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.9%1-17.7%1-25.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-19.2%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.7%3-17.4%3-24.8%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-17.9%4+-25.1%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 21.2% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 62.4% — — —

Away O1.5 38.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 57% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elverum2.4

Ørn Horten1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVERUM · PPG 2.57

ØRN HORTEN · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Elverum (H) 56.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ørn Horten (A) 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Elverum face Ørn Horten in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elverum a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Ørn Horten 21%, so Elverum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Elverum and 1.3 for Ørn Horten (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elverum are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.29 for Ørn Horten. This match finished 1-0.

Elverum vs Ørn Horten Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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