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Drøbak / Frogn vs Sandefjord II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 15 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 16:00

Drøbak / Frogn

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sandefjord II

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.9%0-21.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-03.5%1-15.4%1-24.2%1-32.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.7%2-26.0%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-17.4%3-25.7%3-32.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-110.6%4+-28.2%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% — — —

Draw 16.4% — — —

Away win 21.9% — — —

Over 2.5 73.4% — — —

Over 3.5 54.6% — — —

BTTS 69.4% — — —

Home O1.5 79.3% — — —

Away O1.5 47.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob69.4%

H 62% / xG 2.9-1.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.7%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 5.4%

#4 2–2 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drøbak / Frogn2.9

Sandefjord II1.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DRØBAK / FROGN · PPG 1.67

SANDEFJORD II · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Drøbak / Frogn (H) 61.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sandefjord II (A) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Drøbak / Frogn face Sandefjord II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drøbak / Frogn a 62% chance, the draw 16% and Sandefjord II 22%, so Drøbak / Frogn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Drøbak / Frogn and 1.5 for Sandefjord II (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drøbak / Frogn are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.86 for Sandefjord II. This match finished 1-0.

Drøbak / Frogn vs Sandefjord II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 Predictions