Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 / Sarpsborg 08 II vs Brumunddal

Sarpsborg 08 II vs Brumunddal Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

Sarpsborg 08 II

PPG 1.50 · HOME

11 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Brumunddal

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 79.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.9%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.8%1-13.4%1-22.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.1%2-16.3%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-014.3%4+-117.7%4+-210.9%4+-34.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.2% 75.2% 1.33 -10.6%

Draw 16.7% 19.0% 5.25 -7.4%

Away win 16.0% 19.0% 5.25 -9.6%

Over 2.5 74.4% 85.5% 1.17 -13.0%

Over 3.5 54.1% 67.1% 1.49 -19.4%

BTTS 64.3% 75.8% 1.32 -15.1%

Home O1.5 78.3% 79.4% 1.26 -1.3%

Away O1.5 35.7% 43.5% 2.30 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 11-0

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob64.3%

H 67% / xG 3.6-1.2 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 4–1 6.9%

#3 2–1 6.3%

#4 3–0 6.1%

#5 4–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 08 II3.6

Brumunddal1.2

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 II · PPG 1.50

BRUMUNDDAL · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.40 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 II (H) 67.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -10.6%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -7.4%

Brumunddal (A) 16.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 II face Brumunddal in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 II a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Brumunddal 16%, so Sarpsborg 08 II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Sarpsborg 08 II and 1.2 for Brumunddal (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 II are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.17 for Brumunddal. This match finished 11-0.

Sarpsborg 08 II vs Brumunddal Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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