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Gjøvik-Lyn vs Lillehammer Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Gjøvik-Lyn

PPG 2.29 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lillehammer

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.1%0-25.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.5%1-112.4%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.4%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.9%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 35.7% 2.80 +10.0%

Draw 25.4% 26.7% 3.75 -2.9%

Away win 35.4% 48.8% 2.05 -27.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 63.7% 1.57 -16.0%

Over 3.5 33.1% 41.3% 2.42 -19.9%

BTTS 55.9% 67.6% 1.48 -17.3%

Home O1.5 37.4% 46.5% 2.15 -19.6%

Away O1.5 37.5% 52.6% 1.90 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–2 8.0%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gjøvik-Lyn1.4

Lillehammer1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

GJØVIK-LYN · PPG 2.29

LILLEHAMMER · PPG 2.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gjøvik-Lyn (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +10.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.9%

Lillehammer (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gjøvik-Lyn face Lillehammer in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gjøvik-Lyn a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Lillehammer 35%, so Gjøvik-Lyn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gjøvik-Lyn and 1.3 for Lillehammer (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gjøvik-Lyn are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 2.29 for Lillehammer. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Gjøvik-Lyn vs Lillehammer Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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