Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 / Lillehammer vs Drøbak / Frogn

Lillehammer vs Drøbak / Frogn Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 13:00

Lillehammer

PPG 2.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Drøbak / Frogn

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.67 vs 1.29 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.1%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.7%1-16.0%1-23.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.2%2-18.6%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.8%3-18.2%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-111.8%4+-26.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% — — —

Draw 16.8% — — —

Away win 18.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.9% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 76.5% — — —

Away O1.5 36.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 65% / xG 2.9-1.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 1–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lillehammer2.9

Drøbak / Frogn1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LILLEHAMMER · PPG 2.67

DRØBAK / FROGN · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.81 for Home, form 2.67 vs 1.29 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lillehammer (H) 64.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Drøbak / Frogn (A) 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lillehammer face Drøbak / Frogn in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lillehammer a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Drøbak / Frogn 19%, so Lillehammer are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Lillehammer and 1.1 for Drøbak / Frogn (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lillehammer are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.29 for Drøbak / Frogn.

Lillehammer vs Drøbak / Frogn Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 6

Match Preview & Prediction

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