Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 / Stabæk II vs Våg

Stabæk II vs Våg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Stabæk II

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Våg

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.8%0-22.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.4%1-16.9%1-25.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.5%3-17.0%3-25.4%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-17.7%4+-26.0%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Draw 21.9% 23.1% 4.33 -3.1%

Away win 25.4% 29.4% 3.40 -8.2%

Over 2.5 67.4% 78.1% 1.28 -13.7%

Over 3.5 47.3% 64.1% 1.56 -26.2%

BTTS 64.3% 81.3% 1.23 -20.9%

Home O1.5 62.6% 76.9% 1.30 -18.6%

Away O1.5 48.2% 54.9% 1.82 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 53% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0✓ 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stabæk II2.5

Våg1.6

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

STABÆK II · PPG 1.43

VÅG · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Stabæk II (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -10.4%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.1%

Våg (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stabæk II face Våg in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stabæk II a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Våg 25%, so Stabæk II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Stabæk II and 1.6 for Våg (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stabæk II are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.67 for Våg. This match finished 2-0.

Stabæk II vs Våg Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 Predictions