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Odd II vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

Odd II

PPG 0.83 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Staal Jørpeland

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.4%0-22.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-02.6%1-15.7%1-26.1%1-34.4%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.0%2-16.6%2-27.1%2-35.1%2-4+4.6%3 3-02.3%3-15.1%3-25.5%3-34.0%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-15.1%4+-25.5%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 63.7% 1.57 -26.8%

Draw 20.8% 22.2% 4.50 -3.8%

Away win 32.6% 25.6% 3.90 +27.1%

Over 2.5 73.0% 83.3% 1.20 -12.4%

Over 3.5 52.7% 66.2% 1.51 -20.4%

BTTS 69.6% 79.4% 1.26 -12.3%

Home O1.5 62.4% 79.4% 1.26 -21.4%

Away O1.5 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.6%

H 47% / xG 2.3-2.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.6%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 1–2✓ 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Odd II2.3

Staal Jørpeland2.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ODD II · PPG 0.83

STAAL JØRPELAND · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Odd II (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -26.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.8%

Staal Jørpeland (A) 32.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Odd II face Staal Jørpeland in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Odd II a 47% chance, the draw 21% and Staal Jørpeland 33%, so Odd II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Odd II and 2.2 for Staal Jørpeland (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Odd II are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.33 for Staal Jørpeland. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Odd II vs Staal Jørpeland Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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