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Hinna vs Flekkerøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Hinna

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Flekkerøy

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.0%0-23.9%0-33.4%0-4+4.1%1 1-02.1%1-15.6%1-27.2%1-36.3%1-4+7.6%2 2-02.0%2-15.2%2-26.8%2-35.9%2-4+7.1%3 3-01.3%3-13.2%3-24.2%3-33.7%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.3%4+-23.0%4+-32.6%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 22.2% 4.50 +35.9%

Draw 21.0% 19.0% 5.25 +6.2%

Away win 48.8% 70.4% 1.42 -30.7%

Over 2.5 73.3% 82.0% 1.22 -10.6%

Over 3.5 53.8% 68.5% 1.46 -21.4%

BTTS 69.6% 78.1% 1.28 -10.9%

Home O1.5 55.4% 46.1% 2.17 +20.2%

Away O1.5 65.0% 82.0% 1.22 -20.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob69.6%

A 49% / xG 1.9-2.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.2%

#2 2–2 6.8%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 1–3 6.3%

#5 2–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hinna1.9

Flekkerøy2.6

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 53.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HINNA · PPG 1.00

FLEKKERØY · PPG 1.14

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.73 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Hinna (H) 30.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +35.9%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +6.2%

Flekkerøy (A) 48.8%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -30.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hinna face Flekkerøy in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hinna a 30% chance, the draw 21% and Flekkerøy 49%, so Flekkerøy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hinna and 2.6 for Flekkerøy (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hinna are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Flekkerøy. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Hinna vs Flekkerøy Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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