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Madla vs Vindbjart Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:00

Madla

PPG 2.43 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vindbjart

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.3%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.6%1-110.9%1-27.0%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.3%3-15.5%3-23.5%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 52.9% 1.89 -8.5%

Draw 23.2% 24.7% 4.05 -3.6%

Away win 28.4% 33.7% 2.97 -9.4%

Over 2.5 63.1% 80.0% 1.25 -21.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% 58.5% 1.71 -32.5%

BTTS 61.8% 78.1% 1.28 -20.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 69.0% 1.45 -28.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 55.2% 1.81 -35.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.8%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Madla1.7

Vindbjart1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MADLA · PPG 2.43

VINDBJART · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Madla (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -8.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.05 · IMPLIED 24.7% EV -3.6%

Vindbjart (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.97 · IMPLIED 33.7% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Madla face Vindbjart in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Madla a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Vindbjart 28%, so Madla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Madla and 1.3 for Vindbjart (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Madla are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.71 for Vindbjart. This match finished 4-3.

Madla vs Vindbjart Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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