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Viktoria Plzen vs Pardubice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 16:30

Viktoria Plzen

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pardubice

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.0%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.1%1-17.5%1-24.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.9%2-19.4%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-17.9%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-19.0%4+-24.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 71.9% 1.39 -4.1%

Draw 17.0% 22.7% 4.40 -25.2%

Away win 14.0% 14.7% 6.80 -4.8%

Over 2.5 69.1% 64.5% 1.55 +7.1%

Over 3.5 47.8% 42.0% 2.38 +13.8%

BTTS 59.9% 58.8% 1.70 +1.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.9%

H 69% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 8.9%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viktoria Plzen2.5

Pardubice1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.1% · O3.5 PROB 47.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKTORIA PLZEN · PPG 1.86

PARDUBICE · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Viktoria Plzen (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -4.1%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -25.2%

Pardubice (A) 14.0%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viktoria Plzen face Pardubice in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viktoria Plzen a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Pardubice 14%, so Viktoria Plzen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Viktoria Plzen and 1.1 for Pardubice (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viktoria Plzen are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.29 for Pardubice. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Viktoria Plzen vs Pardubice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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