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Nantong Haimen Codion vs Qingdao Red Lions Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:30

Nantong Haimen Codion

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qingdao Red Lions

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-110.6%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.2%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.6%2-18.2%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 48.8% 2.05 -9.6%

Draw 27.7% 36.4% 2.75 -14.3%

Away win 28.2% 28.6% 3.50 -0.8%

Over 2.5 44.0% 40.0% 2.50 +10.0%

Over 3.5 23.3% 21.1% 4.75 +6.4%

BTTS 48.8% 47.6% 2.10 +2.5%

Home O1.5 34.7% 40.3% 2.48 -13.9%

Away O1.5 27.7% 25.1% 3.98 +6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.8%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantong Haimen Codion1.2

Qingdao Red Lions1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTONG HAIMEN CODION · PPG 1.33

QINGDAO RED LIONS · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nantong Haimen Codion (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.6%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -14.3%

Qingdao Red Lions (A) 28.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantong Haimen Codion face Qingdao Red Lions in China - League Two on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantong Haimen Codion a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Qingdao Red Lions 28%, so Nantong Haimen Codion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nantong Haimen Codion and 1.0 for Qingdao Red Lions (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantong Haimen Codion are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Qingdao Red Lions. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +19.9%.

Nantong Haimen Codion vs Qingdao Red Lions Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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