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Shanghai Port II vs Shandong Taishan II Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 08:30

Shanghai Port II

PPG 1.88 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shandong Taishan II

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.8%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.1%1-112.1%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% 39.2% 2.55 +25.2%

Draw 24.6% 35.1% 2.85 -17.9%

Away win 26.2% 37.0% 2.70 -17.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 46.5% 2.15 +15.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 25.6% 3.90 +26.0%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 45.5% 36.8% 2.72 +23.8%

Away O1.5 30.8% 35.2% 2.84 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Port II1.6

Shandong Taishan II1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI PORT II · PPG 1.88

SHANDONG TAISHAN II · PPG 2.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Port II (H) 49.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +25.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -17.9%

Shandong Taishan II (A) 26.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Port II face Shandong Taishan II in China - League Two on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Port II a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Shandong Taishan II 26%, so Shanghai Port II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shanghai Port II and 1.0 for Shandong Taishan II (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Port II are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 2.11 for Shandong Taishan II. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +36.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Shanghai Port II vs Shandong Taishan II Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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