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Shenzhen 2028 vs Shangyu Pterosaur Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:30

Shenzhen 2028

PPG 2.22 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Shangyu Pterosaur

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.8%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-111.4%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 80.0% 1.25 -32.5%

Draw 24.8% 22.2% 4.50 +7.0%

Away win 21.2% 9.1% 11.00 +79.9%

Over 2.5 50.3% 57.8% 1.73 -13.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 36.0% 2.78 -12.0%

BTTS 49.6% 43.5% 2.30 +14.1%

Home O1.5 48.8% 69.4% 1.44 -29.7%

Away O1.5 20.4% 12.8% 7.80 +35.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shenzhen 20281.7

Shangyu Pterosaur0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHENZHEN 2028 · PPG 2.22

SHANGYU PTEROSAUR · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shenzhen 2028 (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -32.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +7.0%

Shangyu Pterosaur (A) 21.2%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +79.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shenzhen 2028 face Shangyu Pterosaur in China - League Two on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shenzhen 2028 a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Shangyu Pterosaur 21%, so Shenzhen 2028 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Shenzhen 2028 and 0.8 for Shangyu Pterosaur (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shenzhen 2028 are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.33 for Shangyu Pterosaur. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +122.2%. This match finished 6-0.

Shenzhen 2028 vs Shangyu Pterosaur Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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