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BIT vs Shanghai Second Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:00

BIT

PPG 0.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shanghai Second

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.3%0-27.0%0-33.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-07.9%1-111.9%1-29.0%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.0%2-17.6%2-25.7%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 24.4% 4.10 +47.6%

Draw 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Away win 38.7% 57.1% 1.75 -32.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 27.9% 3.58 +15.6%

BTTS 54.6% 51.3% 1.95 +6.5%

Home O1.5 36.8% 25.3% 3.96 +45.7%

Away O1.5 47.7% 50.5% 1.98 -5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.6%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 2–1✓ 7.6%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BIT1.3

Shanghai Second1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BIT · PPG 0.33

SHANGHAI SECOND · PPG 0.89

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

BIT (H) 36.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +47.6%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Shanghai Second (A) 38.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

BIT face Shanghai Second in China - League Two on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BIT a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Shanghai Second 39%, so Shanghai Second are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for BIT and 1.5 for Shanghai Second (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BIT are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.89 for Shanghai Second. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +73.2%. This match finished 2-1.

BIT vs Shanghai Second Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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