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Xiamen Feilu vs Guangzhou Dandelion Prediction— China - League Two

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 11:30

Xiamen Feilu

PPG 1.78 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Guangzhou Dandelion

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.7%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.6%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.7%3-16.1%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.3%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 54.1% 1.85 -0.1%

Draw 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -13.9%

Away win 21.2% 25.6% 3.90 -10.4%

Over 2.5 52.0% 46.5% 2.15 +11.8%

Over 3.5 30.8% 24.7% 4.05 +24.7%

BTTS 53.1% 47.6% 2.10 +11.5%

Home O1.5 55.4% 46.5% 2.15 +19.1%

Away O1.5 23.9% 23.8% 4.20 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 15.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0✓ 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xiamen Feilu1.9

Guangzhou Dandelion0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

XIAMEN FEILU · PPG 1.78

GUANGZHOU DANDELION · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xiamen Feilu (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.1%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.9%

Guangzhou Dandelion (A) 21.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xiamen Feilu face Guangzhou Dandelion in China - League Two on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xiamen Feilu a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Guangzhou Dandelion 21%, so Xiamen Feilu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Xiamen Feilu and 0.9 for Guangzhou Dandelion (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xiamen Feilu are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.00 for Guangzhou Dandelion. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Xiamen Feilu vs Guangzhou Dandelion Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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