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Eker Örebro vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 11:00

Eker Örebro

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nacka Iliria

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.2%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.6%1-19.0%1-25.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.9%3-17.0%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-16.3%4+-23.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 22.7% — — —

Over 2.5 64.9% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 62.9% — — —

Home O1.5 62.1% — — —

Away O1.5 35.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -29.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.9%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eker Örebro2.2

Nacka Iliria1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EKER ÖREBRO · PPG 1.43

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Eker Örebro (H) 55.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nacka Iliria (A) 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Eker Örebro face Nacka Iliria in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eker Örebro a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Nacka Iliria 23%, so Eker Örebro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Eker Örebro and 1.2 for Nacka Iliria (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eker Örebro are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.14 for Nacka Iliria. This match finished 0-4.

Eker Örebro vs Nacka Iliria Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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